Midas Analysis

Trading and Technical Analysis with MIDAS

Price Action on S&P EMini (ES Futures)

 

As we’ve shown in numerous examples, launching MIDAS S/R curves at swing highs and lows produces curves that capture many of the major price moves.  What did MIDAS say about the ES futures today?  Let’s look at the ES 1 min chart above.

 

S1, launched at the morning low right after opening, is quickly retested (highlighted in gray), and price rises up.  Price doesn’t seem to have a lot of momentum, falling back to the S1 and consolidating across it.  This isn’t a clean bounce or slice through as we often expect, but it’s common for sideways trading — price volleys back and forth across a major MIDAS line.  After 45 mins of consolidation price picks up and forms some morning highs.  Launching an S2 curve at the swing low of the consolidation, we see it catches the 1st pullback.

 

As the uptrend runs out of steam, we launch an R1 from its peak.  Price comes down to test S2, a little bounce, and then it rolls over cutting through it.  What follows is nearly an hour of range bound trading between S1 and S2.  Price eventually pushes up through S2 and moves past R1 in a single bar, but does a retest of S1 and rolls back over, falling first to S2 and then back to S1.  Price again tries to climb back up toward  S2 and R1, consolidating, until it pushes up above R1.

 

With the rapid push up from S2 through R1, we launch a TopFinder curve TF1, which predicts the top prior to consolidation, when matching it to the 1st mini pullback.  Price consolidates in a larger pullback, and then makes the high of the day, where we launch R2.  Price falls back to R1 and then returns to test R2 twice, where we launch R3.  Price slices back through R1 and consolidates around S2.

 

Prices moves in to retest R1 and R3, and failing that slices through S1 and S2 and continues downward to make lows of the day.  A TF2 TopFinder could be launched from the R1+R3 failure, matched to the first pullback, and accurately predicts both the next pullack and the full downtrend of 15 points.

 

The outline here shows how the S/R curves can be applied to the S&P emini.  Throughout the day many of the swing highs/lows were made against MIDAS curves.  These curves were often used as points to retest during pullbacks… when successful price pushed upward, and when unsuccessful, price often rolled over and sank.  The third role for MIDAS here is that when price didn’t respond with a bounce or slice through, it would often consolidate along the curve.

 

This outline showed quite a few curves (and many more could have been shown) to illustrate how often price reacts to MIDAS S/R curves.  This chart is particularly detailed, with 1 min bars shown.  The resolution and number of curves could have been reduced to focus more on the major moves.  On the other hand, in active daytrading, we would have focused on the recent price action, launching curves from swing lows/highs as they develop, and confirming their value as trading plays out.

 

 

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