Midas Analysis

Trading and Technical Analysis with MIDAS

Exits with Standard Deviations Bands

We’ve just introduced Standard Deviation Bands, which took the role of resistance and accurately captured a number of pullbacks.  StdDev Bands can be used in trending and sideways markets.  There’s also a third role it can play — as an exit for strong trends.

 

Let’s look at a recent 2min chart of 6E (Euro Futures).   Overall, we have a range bound day, but it’s a large range and price makes some big swings in between.  Each of those swings can be considered an accelerated trend, and we could use TopFinder to track them.

 

Standard Deviation Bands, when fitted to pullbacks or early bars, can play a similar role as an accelerated support line for the upswing.  If price falls below the band, we have a clear signal to exit.

 

The 6E chart below shows three such cases.  From each swing low we launch an S curve. which provides limited value in itself, mainly telling us it’s a sideways market.  However, from each S curve we can add a stddev band, fit it to the first pullback, and we unlock some powerful signals.  The pullbacks are marked with brown arrows and could be our entry point.  The place where price falls below the band is market in red and would be our exit.  The three curves shown track from pullback entry to exit: 15 ticks, 22 ticks, and 7 tickets.

 

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  • Jason says:

    Hello. i’m new to Midas analysis.
    would you tell me that How to calculate that standard deviation band?
    it doesn’t look like Bollinger Band which is also standard deviation band.
    Looking for the detailed formula thanks.

    January 14, 2012 at 1:43 am
    • admin says:

      Hi Jason, the detailed formula is presented in the book Midas Market Analysis (by Coles and Hawkins). The formula takes the standard deviation between price and the midas curve and creates a new curve offset from the midas curve by a sum of the standard deviation. The band is adjusted by the trader to match early price points. Since it’s a sum, it quickly expands but often indicates some interesting price action. If you’re interested in something more similar to Bollinger Bands, you might try out the Midas Displacement Channels, which are offsets from a midas curve.

      January 14, 2012 at 10:08 pm

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